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| Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data | ||
| 12/4/2025 3:21 PM | ||
| Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data On multiple recent occasions, we"ve seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week | ||
| 12/4/2025 2:46 PM | ||
| Today"s mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday"s and although yesterday"s rates were reasonably close to last Friday"s, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there"s a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate surv...Read More | ||
| Home Value, Due Diligence, AVM, Refi Products; Extensive HELOC, DSCR, Non-QM Product Changes | ||
| 12/4/2025 10:39 AM | ||
| “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the builders themselves, can sometimes be viewed as adversaries. In dealing with buyers of new homes, builders and their lender arm often adjust seller credits, par rates, and buy down programs. Builders, of ...Read More | ||
| Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022 | ||
| 12/4/2025 7:53 AM | ||
| Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won"t be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they"ve been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn"t worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big ...Read More | ||
| Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally | ||
| 12/3/2025 3:33 PM | ||
| Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we"re heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Back Down Near Recent Lows | ||
| 12/3/2025 3:02 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn"t quite as low as it was last week, it"s fairly close. Rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds were most likely to move in response to one or both of today"s big economic reports. Oddly enough, most of the bond market improvement was seen overni...Read More | ||
| DPA, DSCR Processing, Buy Before you Sell Products; FDM/AHM Partnership; LOs & MISMO | ||
| 12/3/2025 10:42 AM | ||
| Both Dick Van Dyke and Mel Brooks turn 100, Dick in less than two weeks and Mel next summer. 100 years is a long time, and it’s a big number. Despite faster economic growth than peers, the U.S. faces rising deficits and debt levels above 100 percent of GDP. If this impacts our debt ratings further, look out. Political gridlock and reluctance to ena...Read More | ||
| Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data | ||
| 12/3/2025 7:37 AM | ||
| 10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility. Most of the gains arrived between 6am and 7:30a...Read More | ||
| Steady Gains Throughout The Day | ||
| 12/2/2025 3:02 PM | ||
| Steady Gains Throughout The Day Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly quick to get back to "unchanged" while 10yr Treasuries couldn"t duplicate that feat until the afternoon. There were no clear correlations with other markets and no notable risks on the econ calendar. Th...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower | ||
| 12/2/2025 2:33 PM | ||
| Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction with the average lender offering rates that were just a hair lower than yesterday"s. Starting tomorrow morning, this week"s potential volatility will be higher. Each day brings several economic r...Read More | ||
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