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| Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness | ||
| 12/23/2025 3:43 PM | ||
| Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, but markets didn"t seem to think so in the hour following this morning"s release. GDP was much stronger than expected and bonds traded it like it was a legit market mover. But most of the reaction was a...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher | ||
| 12/23/2025 3:11 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure ca...Read More | ||
| AI, Cap Mkts Tools; Delinquencies Increasing; loanDepot Case Ethics Motion; Bill Dawley Interview | ||
| 12/23/2025 10:52 AM | ||
| Will rates impact the latest MBA origination forecast of $2.2 trillion next year? Sure, although… The Federal Reserve has cut overnight rates, but longer-term rates (like 15- and 30-year mortgages) have done little or have gone up. Recently news came out that Freddie and Fannie are buying securities that they produce. If GM is buying its own cars, ...Read More | ||
| GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion | ||
| 12/23/2025 8:54 AM | ||
| We"ve spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/liquidity/participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that"s more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off...Read More | ||
| Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition | ||
| 12/22/2025 2:57 PM | ||
| Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and held mostly sideways for the entire day. There were no meaningful market movers in play, let alone any meaningful movement. Volume clocked in at the lowest non-holiday level of the year. NOTE: this week...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week | ||
| 12/22/2025 2:21 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday"s levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months. If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they"ll be challenging the lowest le...Read More | ||
| Transitions; Broker, HELOC Products; loanDepot LO Comp Case Ethics Question; Dive Into Data | ||
| 12/22/2025 10:48 AM | ||
| As we approach the end of the year, we’re seeing the usual interest in other opportunities, especially if pipelines aren’t full or management is dealing with people “aging out.” I received this note: “Rob, I need a very targeted approach to finding a new CFO, as my current one is retiring. Know anyone who can help?” I do indeed. You can start with ...Read More | ||
| Range-Bound Cruise Control | ||
| 12/22/2025 9:34 AM | ||
| 2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. ...Read More | ||
| Bond Market in Holiday Mode | ||
| 12/19/2025 3:33 PM | ||
| Bond Market in Holiday Mode Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was mi...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows | ||
| 12/19/2025 3:09 PM | ||
| It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming we...Read More | ||
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