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| Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card | ||
| 11/20/2025 3:21 PM | ||
| Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card The rescheduled release of the September jobs report played out exactly as we expected in terms of bond market impact. Volumes surged to the highest levels since the late October Fed announcement and bonds managed a clear response in spite...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Thanks to Jobs Report | ||
| 11/20/2025 2:48 PM | ||
| Yesterday, we discussed the fact that mortgage rates were heading into Thursday with a disadvantage (for most lenders, anyway). This had to do with the fact that lenders prefer to avoid changing rates in the middle of the day (unless bond market movement is big enough to force their hands) and the fact that bonds had weakened just enough for lender...Read More | ||
| Servicing, Default, Remote Office, Verification Tools; Pennymac CEO on Servicing; IMB Profits; Cash-Strapped CFPB? | ||
| 11/20/2025 10:46 AM | ||
| “Here we are, a week away from Thanksgiving, and I’m in Kansas City. My family told me to stop telling Thanksgiving jokes, but I said I couldn’t quit cold turkey.” The CFPB isn’t going away “cold turkey” but yesterday’s personnel move was a reminder that there are clever people in Washington DC. It was a follow up to Trump Administration court fili...Read More | ||
| Mixed Reaction to Mixed Jobs Data | ||
| 11/20/2025 8:19 AM | ||
| It"s shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There"s no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The 30 minutes of volume following the release was by far the highest since the October 29th Fed announcement. But that volume has been fairly well balanced between buyers and sellers. Cre...Read More | ||
| Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher | ||
| 11/19/2025 3:23 PM | ||
| Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether intentionally or coincidentally) a hawkish message in today"s Fed minutes. At issue: "many" meeting participants felt that a December cut would NOT likely be justified as opposed to "several" who disagr...Read More | ||
| Rates Mostly Steady, But Some Signs of Trouble in The Afternoon | ||
| 11/19/2025 2:19 PM | ||
| It was a complicated day for mortgage rates. Officially, at the time of this article, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is a hair lower than it was yesterday. But rates are based on bonds and bonds are telling a different story. In the wake of the release of the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, bonds lost ground. This impli...Read More | ||
| QC Report, Relationship, Mobile Lock Tools; Zillow and ChatGPT; PHH Reverse Mortgage Sale to FAR | ||
| 11/19/2025 10:41 AM | ||
| As I type these words, I am sitting in front of one of Chuck Berry’s early residences in St. Louis. STL has a good musical reputation, a fine mortgage association, a Fed that puts out great research, and has many nice neighborhoods. But to call this specific area where I am sitting a “transitional” neighborhood would be generous. Although there is ...Read More | ||
| Yields Following Stocks Higher; Fed Minutes on Deck | ||
| 11/19/2025 9:11 AM | ||
| Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more common to see yields move in concert with stocks. These days, Fed accommodation expectations can result in the opposite correlation. That said, there are still times when the old school "stock lever"...Read More | ||
| Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility | ||
| 11/18/2025 3:46 PM | ||
| Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during the government shutdown. With the backlogged data returning in a slow and uncertain fashion, rudder repairs are similarly slow. In today"s case, bonds benefited from overnight strength in overseas bond...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Yet Again as Data Returns | ||
| 11/18/2025 3:11 PM | ||
| With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the government. While some higher profile reports have been rescheduled for the coming days (i.e. on Thursday, we"ll get the jobs report that we were supposed to get in early October), most updated release da...Read More | ||
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