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| What"s Up With Today"s Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) | ||
| 6/24/2026 2:52 PM | ||
| What"s Up With Today"s Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with the S&P up 20% as recently at June 16th. AI-adjacent stocks were up over 50%. Bonds lost ground over the same time. That means the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio targets were thrown way out of wh...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Quickly Approaching 1-Month Lows | ||
| 6/24/2026 1:52 PM | ||
| Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn"t hurt th...Read More | ||
| Retention, Credit, CU Lending, Disaster Analysis Tools; Housing Act to the President; Webcasts | ||
| 6/24/2026 10:46 AM | ||
| “Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” It’s 107 F here in Las Vegas. Some would say, “It’s summer, what do you expect?” (No one expected 40 people to die in France trying to escape the heat.) Lenders and servicers are wondering, if push comes to shove about A/C in homes or supplying a local data center with electricity, w...Read More | ||
| Quick Rally Toward Key Resistance Just Before The Open | ||
| 6/24/2026 8:34 AM | ||
| Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that"s the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike in Treasuries around 7:50...Read More | ||
| Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration | ||
| 6/23/2026 3:17 PM | ||
| Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM ...Read More | ||
| Rates Hold Mostly Steady Despite Bond Market Improvement | ||
| 6/23/2026 2:31 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don"t always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index...Read More | ||
| HELOC, Verification Products; AI Gap; Housing Bill Advances; JPMorganChase on Affordability | ||
| 6/23/2026 10:44 AM | ||
| Yesterday I published a link to Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. The link went to an old version; above is the link to the most current. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and te...Read More | ||
| Re-Coupling and Range Consolidation | ||
| 6/23/2026 8:58 AM | ||
| Yesterday"s most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bonds, but that"s far from a regular correlation these days. In fact, the stock/bond correlation is often reversed when the market is adjusting Fed rate expect...Read More | ||
| What"s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? | ||
| 6/22/2026 3:49 PM | ||
| What"s Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil prices were down, and especially if other bond markets were rallying, U.S. bonds were probably rallying too. Today was the opposite and there are no glaringly obvious reasons. It"s the sort of tra...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Toward Recent Highs | ||
| 6/22/2026 2:57 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday"s levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn"t a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations. For instance, O...Read More | ||
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