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| Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness | ||
| 7/16/2026 3:46 PM | ||
| Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage being roughly an eighth of a point for MBS and less than a bp for 10yr yields. The selling was led by the short end of the curve (i.e. 2yr yields were up 1.5bps). There wasn"t any obvious catalyst apart f...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher | ||
| 7/16/2026 2:27 PM | ||
| While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that"s not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July 13th and May 19th when our 30yr fixed index hit 6.75%. The index was at 6.68% today, up from 6.64% yesterday. Any news regarding "highest rates since August 2025" is almost certainly citing Freddie M...Read More | ||
| Hedging, Data Mapping, BER Letter, PPE Tools; AI Ramifications; Atty. Mitch Kider Joins Big Picture | ||
| 7/16/2026 10:54 AM | ||
| Nearly every lender is at least learning about AI, but on the flip side there are things like New York’s ban on data centers. Lenders and vendors are not the only ones riding the tech wave, and no LO wants to be behind their client in tech knowledge. Consumers are now researching affordability, neighborhoods, and monthly payments long before contac...Read More | ||
| Are Bonds High on Crack (Spreads)? | ||
| 7/16/2026 10:26 AM | ||
| The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It"s more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most frequently refers to the margin between input and output costs for fuel (gas, diesel, etc). Petro-nerds seem to like the 3-2-1 crack spread, which covers both gas and diesel (3 barrels of oil margin ...Read More | ||
| Wednesday"s Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday"s | ||
| 7/15/2026 2:43 PM | ||
| Wednesday"s Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday"s Both Tuesday"s CPI and Wednesday"s PPI came in much lower than expected. Both resulted in fairly big bond rallies. Whereas Tuesday"s rally faded gradually after the initial pop, Wednesday"s rally continued at a moderate pace as the day progressed. The ...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Levels in a Week | ||
| 7/15/2026 1:40 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday"s Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today"s Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn"t far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hour...Read More | ||
| Home Equity, Verification, Asset-Based Lending, MI Tools; Housing Demand Shift; Fed Balance Sheet Thoughts | ||
| 7/15/2026 10:44 AM | ||
| Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage...Read More | ||
| PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It | ||
| 7/15/2026 8:20 AM | ||
| The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday"s sharply lower CPI. There were also big revisions to previous months which brought annual PPI a full 1.0% lower from last month"s initial reading (5.5% today vs a 6.0 prev...Read More | ||
| Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? | ||
| 7/14/2026 3:42 PM | ||
| Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? If you missed this morning"s commentary, the gist is that inflation for June (via the CPI report) came in much lower than forecast (biggest "miss" in over a year). Given the market"s preoccupation with inflation, this logically resulted in an immediate bond r...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs | ||
| 7/14/2026 2:17 PM | ||
| Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in...Read More | ||
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