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| Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere | ||
| 2/3/2026 2:48 PM | ||
| Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere The legend of the bond market"s extreme apathy is increasingly making the rounds in financial circles. Bond issuance, inflation, and economic strength are not seen surging enough to put huge upward pressure on longer-term rates. And without a big downturn in 2 of those ...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Drift Up to 2-Week Highs | ||
| 2/3/2026 2:23 PM | ||
| The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time, so there"s not too much of a difference between 2-week highs (6.20%) and lows (6.15%). Today"s move wasn"t a product of anything that happened today. Rather, the culprit was the focal poi...Read More | ||
| Customer Intelligence, HELOC, Uplist"s Recapture, Construction Products; Rates Are Driven by Markets; IMB Hallway Report | ||
| 2/3/2026 10:08 AM | ||
| Regarding rate movement, the bond market often does the Fed’s job for it, and so whatever the Fed’s Open Market Committee actually does is almost an afterthought. The partial U.S. Government shutdown is hurting economic activity, and companies like Newrez are posting and how the shutdown is impacting lending. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing...Read More | ||
| Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown | ||
| 2/3/2026 9:38 AM | ||
| While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there"s a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week"s key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday"s jobs report). ...Read More | ||
| Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday | ||
| 2/2/2026 3:14 PM | ||
| Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday Very little changed after this morning"s commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness | ||
| 2/2/2026 2:35 PM | ||
| Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday"s latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally h...Read More | ||
| Mgt. Review, BBYS, Digital HELOC, Non-QM Products; Opinions on Credit Fixes; IMB Underway | ||
| 2/2/2026 10:54 AM | ||
| There are lots of rumors about more M&A. For example, Maxwell, a POS and mortgage origination services company, being acquired by Place, a real estate tech platform and real estate brokerage company. Place (with its Mortgage Calculator App) is rumored to be heavily involved (owns?) Envoy Mortgage. Word in the hallways that Place, and others, wi...Read More | ||
| Big Beat in ISM Manufacturing. Bonds Aren"t Thrilled | ||
| 2/2/2026 9:19 AM | ||
| Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week"s Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today"s ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of th...Read More | ||
| Volatility Eludes Bonds | ||
| 1/30/2026 3:36 PM | ||
| Volatility Eludes Bonds Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damage amounting to an average of 2bps per day in 10yr yields, it was anything but volatile. The past 2 trading sessions had more noticeable ups and downs, but they played out in an even narrower range. Fr...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Sidestep Into The Weekend | ||
| 1/30/2026 3:10 PM | ||
| While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND"s 30yr fixed rate index--something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious insp...Read More | ||
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