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| Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification | ||
| 9/30/2026 4:01 PM | ||
| Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification 10yr yields hit another long-term high today, breaking above 5.30% briefly before settling just under 5.29%. There was a flash of hope after the 8:30am econ data, but that reversed fairly quickly. Reasons can be debated. Some would say today"s broadly...Read More | ||
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| Mortgage Rates End Day Higher Despite Promising Start | ||
| 9/30/2026 3:06 PM | ||
| For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning"s PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived. Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That"s only 0.02% highe...Read More | ||
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| Jumbo ARM, Compliance, AVM, Borrower Mining Tools; Fairway"s Steve Jacobson Interview; California MBA"s Advocacy | ||
| 9/30/2026 10:53 AM | ||
| Time flies. The last day of the third quarter. We just wrapped up Fat Bear Week 2026 in Alaska. (Congrats to Backpack.) Ringo Starr is 86 years old, and doing well: clean living, being active, and a sense of humor. I mention this because when he was born, a letter was 3 cents to mail. Do companies still have mailrooms and mail bags? Let’s dip into ...Read More | ||
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| Lower PCE Inflation, So Why Aren"t Bonds Happier? | ||
| 9/30/2026 8:34 AM | ||
| Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as high as it could be without rounding up to 0.3. Core annual PCE was 3.0, which was flat versus a downward revision from 3.3. More importantly, that downward revision wasn"t mainly about new data collecti...Read More | ||
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| Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped | ||
| 9/29/2026 3:56 PM | ||
| Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even weaker levels in spite of a respectable drop in oil prices. Data and headlines had little to no bearing on the selling. If anything, the biggest scapegoat is the combination of bearish momentum and qu...Read More | ||
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| Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.58% | ||
| 9/29/2026 3:03 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates moved higher again on Tuesday as the bond market continues recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, economic growth, and inflation. The weakness is especially frustrating considering a fairly large drop in oil prices today, but as we discussed yesterday, rates have a lot more on their mind than oil these days. Our top-tier 30yr fi...Read More | ||
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| AI Marketing, SOC, HELOC Fulfillment Tools; Rocket Makes VantageScore Move, But Serious Investor Questions Remain | ||
| 9/29/2026 10:13 AM | ||
| Lender and Brokers Products, Services, and Software Regulatory oversight for automated valuation models (AVMs) has shifted in recent years, placing greater emphasis on rigorous testing and validation. Lenders who aren’t keeping pace with evolving compliance requirements can be exposed to greater risk. ICE’s AVM Model Monitor provides on-demand de...Read More | ||
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| Now Completely Shunning The Drop in Oil | ||
| 9/29/2026 8:37 AM | ||
| Bonds were initially modestly stronger overnight, but mostly sideways in the bigger picture. Right at the 8:20am CME open, bond sellers were clearly waiting in line to sell. This is another small anecdote that potentially suggests month/quarter-end trading is contributing to this week"s volatility. It could also be an ongoing defensive stance ...Read More | ||
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| Bond-Specific Weakness | ||
| 9/28/2026 4:18 PM | ||
| Bond-Specific Weakness Over the past 6 months, as bonds continued to sell off, there was frequently some solace in the fact that the rate spike correlated with oil or diesel prices enough to hope that an oil price recovery would pave the way for a rate recovery. While there"s likely still some benefit for b...Read More | ||
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| Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 7.5% | ||
| 9/28/2026 3:07 PM | ||
| Despite Friday afternoon"s promising bond market rally and mortgage rate improvement, today"s top tier 30yr fixed rate bounced back up. The average lender is now at 7.50% for the first time since April 30, 2024. While there"s been a lot of short-term correlation between oil prices and interest rates over the last 6 months, oil does a poor jo...Read More | ||
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